Cataraqui Conservation’s analysis of watershed conditions and forecasts point to the distinct possibility of some flooding in the Cataraqui Region this spring. Long-range weather forecasts are signalling a sustained period of warmth, with above zero daytime highs March 6 through March 11, combined with the possibility of significant rainfall.
“As of the March 2, 2026, snow survey, the snowpack contains 80 mm of water equivalent, on average, for the seven survey sites within the Cataraqui Region. This is double the normal amount of water in the snowpack for this time of year, when compared to the average of data collected over the last 30 years,” said Shawn Fairbank, Cataraqui Conservation Water Resources Technologist. The locations with the highest values are Kingston and Battersea at around 260% of normal.
“Conditions in March 2025 were similar to what we are seeing now,” noted Fairbank “Our flood messaging in 2025 started with a Water Safety Statement on March 13 followed by the first of several Flood Watch Statements on March 17.”
Cataraqui Conservation Watershed Monitoring and Flood Forecasting and Warning staff work together to monitor rain, snow and ice events in the Cataraqui Region along with projected weather forecasts to help prepare municipalities and watershed residents for the spring freshet. A freshet is a seasonal rise in water levels due to increased rainfall and melting snow, which could lead to flooding.
Staff work with local water managers and rely on various forms of data to help predict flood risk such as meteorological forecasts, rainfall, temperature, ground conditions, inland lake and stream flow levels, and snow coverage. Data is collected at regular intervals year-round throughout the Cataraqui Conservation jurisdiction.
In preparation for the spring freshet, ‘Snow Course’ or ‘Snow Survey’ measurements are one of the important data points analyzed to help predict flooding. “Data collected at regular intervals at seven monitoring locations from November 15 to May 15 helps inform decisions,” explains Cataraqui Conservation Watershed Planning Coordinator, Holly Evans.
“From the data we collect, we know on average how deep the snow is at each site, as well as how much water is within the snow because the snow is weighed and calculated to determine the Snow Water Equivalent (SWE).” Notes are also taken to indicate whether there is a crust on the snow as this impacts the melt or how any rain would be received, either soaking into the snowpack or running off into waterways. Also, if the ground under the snow is frozen or not, this will indicate if the melting snow can soak into unfrozen ground.
“Unlike the rest of the year when precipitation falls and immediately moves to another part of the water cycle (runoff, infiltration, evaporation, transpiration), winter is mostly a time of accumulated precipitation as it remains frozen until temperatures rise. This delayed movement means that we need to use the information collected to gauge what can be expected when it melts. It may melt slowly to gradually increase water levels in our streams and lakes or melt faster potentially causing a quicker/bigger water level increase.”
Cataraqui Conservation staff continue to monitor local conditions and share data with local water managers and municipalities. Please visit our Flood Forecasting and Warning page for more information and current Flood Status. If you witness flooding and/or require assistance, your first point of contact is the local municipality